Assumptions & inputs
Single source of truth for every default used across this document set and the 6. Interactive model. The values below are the model's defaults — change them live there to re-run any number on this page. Grouped exactly as the model's input classes.
Growth assumptions
The two compounding rates that drive all annualised and 15-year figures:
| Assumption | Default | Applies to |
|---|---|---|
| Volume growth | 10 % / year | campaign count (operations scale year on year) |
| Cost inflation | 5 % / year | Etherlink unit fees + maintenance (costs rise over the term) |
| Term | 15 years | the SHA period everything is summed over |
(Earlier drafts also modelled take-rate "k-downgrade"; the current capital-view model drops it — growth is volume + inflation only.)
Investment
| Assumption | Default |
|---|---|
| Tranche 1 (Year 1) | €200,000 |
| Tranche 2 | €200,000 |
| Tranche 2 lands in year | 2 |
| Total investment | €400,000 |
Operations — per campaign (Year 1)
| Assumption | Default |
|---|---|
| Campaigns (Year 1) | 200 |
| Topups / campaign | 5 |
| Withdrawals / campaign | 1 |
| Escrows (slots) / campaign | 10 |
| Releases (payouts to streamers) / campaign | 9 |
| Refunds (to operator) / campaign | 1 |
Derived: 200 campaigns × 10 slots = 2,000 deliveries / year. Per campaign: 16 bridge crossings (5 topups + 1 withdrawal + 9 releases + 1 refund) and 40 messages (10 escrows × 2 + 20 per campaign).
Etherlink — unit cost
| Assumption | Default | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Bridge / debridge | €0.50 / crossing | conservative ~20× buffer; measured on-chain ~€0.01–0.03 (10. Appendix) |
| Messaging | €0.30 / message | not yet measured on-chain |
| Messages / escrow | 2 | business events per escrow |
| Messages / campaign | 20 | per-campaign state messages |
BC — build & run (day rates)
| Assumption | Default | Derived |
|---|---|---|
| DeFi eng rate | €500 / day | |
| Audit rate | €4,000 / day | |
| Build — eng days | 40 | build = €20K |
| Build — audit days | 6 | initial audit = €24K → one-off €44K |
| Maintenance — eng days / yr | 40 | €20K/yr |
| Maintenance — re-audit days / yr | 4 | €16K/yr → maintenance €36K/yr |
Headline outputs at these defaults
| Output | Value |
|---|---|
| One-off build + audit | €44K |
| Maintenance | €36K / yr |
| 15-yr BC cost | ~€1.02M (DeFi eng €452K + audit €369K + chain €198K) |
| Net investment for non-BC growth | ≈ −€620K |
| Investment exhausted by | ~Year 8 |
Run any of these live, or stress them (e.g. set Bridge to the measured 0.03, or maintenance days to 0 for the floor), in the 6. Interactive model. For the legacy A/B/C comparison, the older technical/market assumptions live in the Introduction.